"The leading indicators are approaching a peak and as the share markets have already started poorly in March, investors should prepare themselves for having to reduce their tactical allocations to shares by the start of April, said chief strategist at Sparinvest, David Bakkegaard Karsbøl, in his montly comment for March.
After some weeks of living in fear of higher inflation and a faster tightening of fiscal policy than first expected, interest rates have moderated throughout the rest of February. Even the key figures, which have been slightly more inflationary than expected, have not had any mentionable effect on interest rates. The reaction seen in the interest market at the start of February was therefore an overreaction.
David Bakkegaard Karsbøl comments, that one of the reasons for the falling share market is probably Trump’s announcement of specific proposals for a punitive tariff on imported steel, the lower price of which he sees as evidence of unfair competition with U.S. industry. To cap it all, the proposal was accompanied by an announcement that trade wars are good and easy to win.
Economists generally agree that these statements are an expression of rampant economic illiteracy, and the EU commission did not pass by its chance to compete with Trump by announcing a potential counter-move in the form of customs barriers if Trump’s proposal is adopted. Among European shares, car manufacturers are particularly hit by Trump’s announcements.
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